blog
October 23, 2023
Economic Impact: Can Something Good Come from a Crisis?

October 23, 2023: Despite headwinds, the U.S. could experience structural changes in the labor market, residential real estate, and inflation as the post-pandemic economy progresses into the New Year. As markets adjust to a new regime, investors should recognize the economy ...

October 16, 2023
Earnings Hope to Keep This One-Year-Old Bull Market Going

October 16, 2023: Earnings season has kicked off with several of the big banks and a handful of other blue-chip companies having already reported results for their calendar third quarters. The key headline this reporting season will be the (likely) end of the earnings recess...

October 10, 2023
Yields Higher for Longer: Why We’re Updating Our Treasury Forecast

October 9, 2023: U.S. Treasury yields have seemingly been moving in one direction lately (higher), with the 30-year Treasury yield temporarily breaching 5% for the first time since 2007. The move higher in yields (lower in price) has been unrelenting, with intermediate and l...

October 4, 2023
Prospects for a Fourth Quarter Rally

October 2, 2023: After a difficult September for stocks, investors are surely ready to flip the calendar to October. That’s the month that kicks off the historically strong fourth quarter. Expecting this pattern to repeat this year is tricky given the overhang of a governm...

September 25, 2023
Is India the New China?

India has emerged as a compelling economic growth story and an increasingly attractive alternative to China within the emerging markets complex. A growing population with a robust and young workforce, significant infrastructure spending, and an ongoing digital transformatio...

September 13, 2023
The Growing List—and Politicization—of BRICS and Friends

September 11. 2023: The BRIC acronym, without the “S,” was introduced in 2001 by the Goldman Sachs chief economist who highlighted the prodigious growth and investment prospects of Brazil, Russia, India, and China combined. In 2009, Russia advanced the BRIC platform to c...

September 5, 2023
Interest Rates Are Back to Normal, But What Is Normal

September 5, 2023: Fixed income investors have had a rough time over the last few years. Normally a staid asset class, core bonds (as proxied by the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index) have seen negative returns over the last two calendar years and could potentially see negative...

August 28, 2023
Opportunities and Risks in the Markets: Lessons Learned from the Grand Tetons

August 28, 2023: The Federal Reserve (Fed) often uses the Jackson Hole Symposium to announce tweaks in policy. Other central bank leaders are also worth watching as investors try to perceive where rates will be in the coming months. In this piece, we discuss some of the oppo...

August 24, 2023
Pullback Perspective: The Reasons Why Stocks Are Pulling Back

August 21, 2023: Volatility has returned right on cue as U.S. equity markets continue to pull back from overbought levels. The recent jump in interest rates has proven to be too much too fast for stocks to absorb, especially for the heavyweight and longer-duration technology...

August 14, 2023
How This U.S. Debt Downgrade is Different from 2011

August 14, 2023: It’s different this time. The four (or five) most dangerous words in investing. We’ll take the risk and use those words here as we break down the recent decision by credit rating agency Fitch to downgrade U.S. government debt to its second-highest rating...

August 7, 2023
Key Earnings Season Takeaways

August 7, 2023: Earnings season is mostly behind us with about 85% of S&P 500 companies having reported second quarter results. The high level results aren’t particularly impressive, but if we peel back the onion, the numbers are encouraging. Results and guidance probabl...

July 31, 2023
A Cloudy Outlook Makes for Choppy Markets

July 31, 2023: The economy is doing better than expected, and the markets are responding accordingly. In this piece, we discuss some of the factors that cause us to think the Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked for the last time in this cycle as inflation is receding and the outlook...