blog
September 19, 2022
How Much Higher Can Rates Go?

September 19, 2022: Inflationary dynamics continue to surprise to the upside, and markets now expect the Fed to pursue one of its most aggressive rate hiking campaign in years. U.S. Treasury yields continue to move higher as well. We think we’ve seen the biggest moves high...

September 12, 2022
Getting Jobs Market Back into Balance

September 12, 2022: Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell reiterated his warning that getting inflation under control will require some pain. Powell is likely making these warnings based on the arcane, clunky relationship between inflation and unemployment. The key to getting ...

September 6, 2022
September’s Calendar Cruelty for Stocks

September 6, 2022: The difficult 2022 for stocks may not get much easier because as we now wait for better news on the inflation front, we have to contend with a seasonally weak month of September. While we got some welcome news in Friday’s jobs report, more evidence of fa...

August 29, 2022
Earnings Recap: Still Hanging In There

August 29, 2022: Earnings growth of 6-7% doesn’t sound very exciting, but given the challenges corporate America has faced, we consider the nearly-complete second quarter earnings season a resounding success. The numerous challenges last quarter included a slowing economy,...

August 22, 2022
Home Sales Fall (Again). What’s Next?

August 22, 2022: Existing home sales fell 5.9% in July, the sixth consecutive month of declines as higher interest rates weigh on housing affordability and prospective buyers. As the housing market slowed, so did prices. The median price for a single family home was $410,600...

August 15, 2022
Is This the Start of a New Bull Market?

August 15, 2022: Investors cheered the two better-than-expected inflation reports last week, pushing the S&P 500 to 16% above its June 16 low and only 11% below its all-time high. After this rebound, the key question investors are asking is whether this is a bear market rall...

August 8, 2022
The Case for a U.S. Recession Weakens

August 8, 2022: The market pundits remain intensely focused on the question of whether the U.S. economy is in or about to enter recession, so we thought a piece on what a recession might mean for the stock market would be of interest. While Friday’s strong jobs report prov...

August 1, 2022
What a Week for the Stock Market

August 1, 2022: That was quite a week. These days a Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting alone gets a lot of headlines and has market participants on the edge of their seats. Add to that the second straight quarter of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth that exacerb...

July 25, 2022
Three Factors That Could Change the Course of Inflation

July 25, 2022: For the past year, supply-related problems contributed more to inflation than demand-related imbalances, but that may be changing soon. There are at least three factors that could change the course of inflation. First, the improvement in shipping and general s...

July 18, 2022
Managing Volatility

July 18, 2022: Markets rarely give us clear skies, and there are always threats to watch for on the horizon, but the right preparation, context, and support can help us navigate anything that may lie ahead. So far, this year hasn’t seen a full-blown crisis like 2008–2009...

July 5, 2022
Constructive, Not Complacent: Lowering S&P 500 Target

July 5, 2022: Stocks have been unable to make up much ground since the June 16 lows, with a bear market rally amounting to only around a 4.3% gain in the S&P 500 Index since then (as of July 1). After the more than 6% rally the week of June 24 and the increasing optimism th...

June 27, 2022
Relief at the Pump and for Portfolios?

June 27, 2022: 2022 has been rough all-around for the American consumer. Not only are we battling decades-high inflation, but investors’ portfolios are off to one of the worst starts to a year in history as we near the halfway point. Our technical work is first and foremos...