Category: Market Updates

November 21, 2022
Playbook for a Fed Pivot: Exploring Equity and Fixed Income Market Performance

November 21, 2022: Recent inflation data has tempered expectations for future Federal Reserve tightening, including a potential peak in the terminal rate near 5.0% in May or June of 2023. While the market has welcomed this news, history suggests the path to a Fed pivot could...

November 14, 2022
Inflation and Rising Rates Supports Value

November 14, 2022: The growth vs. value debate has been pretty one-sided in 2022, with value outperforming growth for a sustained period for the first time in almost 15 years. However, the debate is heating up as investors begin to consider whether the pendulum will swing ba...

November 7, 2022
How Midterm Elections May Move Markets

November 7, 2022: Midterm elections are upon us, with Election Day on Tuesday. Republicans are strongly favored to win the House, and the Senate is roughly a tossup. We believe either outcome would be market-friendly, although the bigger market driver will likely be central ...

October 31, 2022
Federal Reserve Preview: TRICK or Treat?

October 31, 2022: With a series of important economic indicators suggesting the economy is declining and inflation is finally decelerating, albeit very slowly, markets are beginning to factor in that the Fed may soon transition to a less aggressive stance in early 2023. Here...

October 24, 2022
Three Things to Know About Recessions

October 24, 2022: If the U.S. economy enters a recession, the causes and potential outcome will be hotly debated. At LPL Research, our starting point is always looking at history. This week’s commentary will remind us of three things we know about historical recessions....

October 17, 2022
Low Bar for Earnings Season

October 17, 2022: Expectations are very low for this earnings season. The challenges are many, with intense cost pressures and slowing economic growth at the top of the list. The chorus of analysts and strategists calling for big cuts to estimates has gotten louder. Expect e...

October 10, 2022
Pockets of Vulnerabilities

October 10, 2022: As Federal Reserve (Fed) officials continue to emphasize the Fed’s commitment towards restoring price stability, the dollar marches ever higher. Markets are currently pricing in another 75-basis point rate hike at the November 2 Fed meeting as calls for t...

October 3, 2022
Markets on Watch as Xi Jinping’s Influence to be Tested in October

October 3, 2022: On October 16, China will begin its 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in Beijing. This plenum is especially significant because it is expected that President Xi Jinping will be granted an unprecedented third term, something that he set in...

September 26, 2022
Why It May Be Time to Take Advantage of Higher Yields

September 26, 2022: The LPL Research Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation Committee is increasing its recommended interest rate exposure in its tactical allocation from underweight to neutral. Now that interest rates have moved substantially higher, we believe opportuniti...

September 22, 2022
Are Markets Pricing in a Recession?
September 19, 2022
How Much Higher Can Rates Go?

September 19, 2022: Inflationary dynamics continue to surprise to the upside, and markets now expect the Fed to pursue one of its most aggressive rate hiking campaign in years. U.S. Treasury yields continue to move higher as well. We think we’ve seen the biggest moves high...

September 12, 2022
Getting Jobs Market Back into Balance

September 12, 2022: Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell reiterated his warning that getting inflation under control will require some pain. Powell is likely making these warnings based on the arcane, clunky relationship between inflation and unemployment. The key to getting ...