By: Adam Turnquist, Chief Technical Strategist, LPL Financial, Brian Booe, Associate Analyst, Research, LPL Financial, Jeffrey Buchbinder, Chief Equity Strategist, LPL Financial, and Lawrence Gillum, Chief Fixed Income Strategist, LPL Financial

Use of the terms “bull” and “bear” in financial markets can be traced back to London’s financial district in the late 19th century, used as an analogy for how each animal attacks; the bull thrusts its horns upwards, and a bear swipes its paws downwards. Others believe the terms started in the 16th century when bearskin salesmen would sell skins they had yet to receive from trappers, hoping the price from trappers would drop. We’ll leave that debate to you. On Wall Street today, firms consider a base case, or what they believe will likely occur, and bull and bear cases of factors that could sway markets in either direction. As our base case, we expect moderate gains for stocks, rangebound Treasury yields, and slight cooling in the economy. But as the recent spike in volatility and subsequent rebound has illustrated, nothing in capital markets is a sure thing.

Our better-than-expected, or bull case, would feature an extension of strong artificial intelligence (AI) driven earnings growth and investment boosting productivity, a strong economy without recession, lower interest rates as inflation comes down further, supportive policies from Washington, and continued positive technical trends.

Read the full commentary here: Weekly Market Commentary 02.10.2025